Real Estate Analysis and Valuation Insights

Mortgage Market Shifts: What Florida Appraisers Should Expect in Q4 2025

By CSCC Appraisal Services, Inc | Residential Real Estate Appraisal Insights

As we head into the final quarter of 2025, residential real estate markets across Florida are facing a shift—one that appraisers need to track closely. Mortgage rates are easing, pending home sales are rebounding, and Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling potential rate cuts which are more than welcome by the market (prayerfully this will come to fruition).

For appraisers working in North, Northeast, and North-Central Florida, specifically those that the majority of the business they conduct is mortgage driven, these changes could bring a noticeable impact on residential appraisal volume and the alternative valuation space as well.

Key Market Updates

Mortgage Rates at 10-Month Lows

• The national average 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering around 6.5%, the lowest since October 2024.
• Some Florida-based lenders are offering even more competitive terms—Seacoast Bank, for example, recently quoted 6.0% (APR ~6.2%) on a 30-year fixed. It’s hard to believe that 6.0% is now considered a competitive rate given where we were roughly 3 years ago.

Appraiser Takeaway: As rates decline, affordability improves, allowing more market participants to enter. Expect increased buyer activity in submarkets with moderate pricing (Gainesville, Ocala, Jacksonville suburbs). More purchase activity typically translates into more appraisal orders even with waivers and alternative valuation methods.

Pending Home Sales Rise

• According to Redfin, pending home sales nationally rose ~1.6% in August, year over year. National Association of Realtors will release pending home sales data September 29^th, stay tuned for additional insights.
• Florida metros, particularly those with more attainable price points, are expected to lead the rebound.

Appraiser Takeaway: Pending sales often are seen as a foreshadow for appraisal demand. A modest rise in order volume is likely in late Q3 and into Q4 even with seasonal impacts expected in the last quarter.

Fed Signals Rate Cuts

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates in September, with the possibility of more cuts before year-end. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut at its September 16^th 2025 meeting, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 4.00%-4.25%
• While fixed mortgage rates move more closely with 10-year Treasury yields, market sentiment is shifting toward lower borrowing costs overall.

Appraiser Takeaway: Refinances may re-enter the picture, especially for homeowners with rates above 7%, those that dated the rate and are married to the home. This could add to your valuation workload heading into Q4.

Supply & Inventory Dynamics in Florida

• Housing inventory is building in Florida, with North-Central metros like Gainesville and Alachua County seeing more new listings. Currently year over year Alachua County, FL has see approximately 2.5% more listings come to market.
• Builders are offering buy-downs and concessions, showing eagerness to close deals before year-end.

Appraiser Takeaway: More listings mean more comps, but also potential downward price pressure if sellers must adjust expectations due to more supply. Appraisers should monitor competitive pricing trends closely to ensure accurate market trends are reported whether they be positive, negative or neutral.

Implications for Residential Appraisers

What This Means for Your Business

For appraisers serving North, Northeast, and North-Central Florida, the upcoming quarter looks cautiously optimistic:

• Expect a modest pickup in orders from both purchases and selective refinances.
• Monitor pricing volatility, especially in mid-tier homes where concessions are growing.
• Stay nimble on turn times, as lenders push to close deals faster while rates remain attractive.

The bottom line: Q4 2025 could bring more appraisal opportunities than we’ve seen in the past year, but success will hinge on staying sharp with market data and available comps.

About CSCC Appraisal Services, Inc.

At CSCC Appraisal Services, Inc, we provide timely, accurate, and market-informed residential appraisals across North Florida. With deep expertise in the North, Northeast, and North-Central regions, we help lenders, agents, and homeowners navigate shifting market conditions with confidence. We also offer valuation services for premarket listing, estate, litigation, and divorce services.

Contact us today to learn how our appraisal services can support your business in today’s evolving market.

This blog post is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional for personal guidance.